Dijon 0-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dijon face Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dijon at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Niort's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Dijon, 0.90 for Niort — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2022, ended Dijon 1–2 Niort — a Niort win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Niort — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 52% versus Niort 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 54% | Niort 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.58 xG and Niort 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.097 / defence 1.156 | Niort attack 0.935 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.054. Niort's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dijon's projected output up. Data: built from Dijon's last 59 games and Niort's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dijon 47% | Draw 25% | Niort 28%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.11 | Draw 4.00 | Niort 3.63. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dijon 40% (last 10 home games) | Niort 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 47% | Draw 25% | Niort 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Dijon 1.58 / Niort 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.097 / def 1.156 | Niort attack 0.935 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Dijon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Niort xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dijon vs Niort FAQs
What time does Dijon vs Niort kick off?
Dijon vs Niort kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Niort?
Dijon 0 - 1 Niort.
Where is Dijon vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Niort part of?
Dijon vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 47% chance of winning, Niort a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dijon and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dijon vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.10) and Niort's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.94x) against Dijon's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Dijon's last 59 games and Niort's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.00
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.72
1.14
Niort xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dijon vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dijon and 1.14 for Niort, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 14D 27L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 16W 15D 28L from 59 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Dijon against 1.07 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 7D 10L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 8D 15L from their last 29 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.97 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Niort
Blended
Dijon (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dijon
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Dijon vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Dijon and Niort in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Niort have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Niort away?
Dijon's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.48 PPG; Niort away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Niort have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Dijon vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dijon have won 1, Niort have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dijon and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2023: Dijon 0-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 45%, Niort 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dijon) and 48% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 31% of games; Niort in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dijon vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dijon and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Dijon's recent matches and 41% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dijon and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Dijon's recent games and 48% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Dijon's recent matches and 66% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Niort defy the odds to beat Dijon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Dijon 0-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.58 xG and Niort 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dijon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.10 / defence 1.16 against Niort attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 47% | Draw 25% | Niort 28%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 54%, Niort 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Niort's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.15 PPG, Niort 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Niort (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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