Dijon 2-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Caen at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dijon at 1.30 PPG versus Caen's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dijon, 0 for Caen and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Dijon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Caen in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 52% versus Caen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 52% | Caen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.15 xG and Caen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.148 / defence 1.134 | Caen attack 0.999 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 0.986. Data: 40 Dijon games / 40 Caen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dijon 36% | Draw 31% | Caen 34%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Caen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 40% | Caen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 36% | Draw 31% | Caen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Dijon 1.15 / Caen 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.148 / def 1.134 | Caen attack 0.999 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.061 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Dijon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Caen xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Caen kick off?
Dijon vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Caen?
Dijon 2 - 2 Caen.
Where is Dijon vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Caen part of?
Dijon vs Caen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 36% chance of winning, Caen a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dijon and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Caen?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 2W | Draws 0 | Caen 0W.
What form are Dijon and Caen in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Caen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dijon's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
36%
2.82
31%
3.24
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.27
1.12
Caen xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dijon and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Dijon and 1.12 for Caen, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon's recent record stands at 14W 9D 17L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 14L across 40 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.27 PPG, Caen on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dijon have managed 9W 3D 8L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 5W 8D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.32 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Caen in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Caen have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Caen away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Caen away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Dijon or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Caen in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dijon's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Caen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Caen 2-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Caen?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Caen see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 50%, Caen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dijon) and 30% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Caen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dijon's recent matches and 50% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dijon's recent games and 30% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dijon and Caen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 3, as Dijon and Caen drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.15 xG and Caen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.15 / defence 1.13 against Caen attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 36% | Draw 31% | Caen 34%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 52%, Caen 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.27 PPG, Caen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.