Dijon 2-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 0.17 PPG across 6 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bastia have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bastia are 0.83 PPG clear of Dijon in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.00 vs 0.17). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 83% and Bastia 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 67% | Bastia 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.06 xG and Bastia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.136 / defence 1.510 | Bastia attack 0.750 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 0.718 / away 1.141. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Dijon games / 6 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 28% | Draw 33% | Bastia 39%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Bastia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 100% | Bastia 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 28% | Draw 33% | Bastia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Dijon 1.06 / Bastia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.136 / def 1.510 | Bastia attack 0.750 / def 1.299 | league avg home 0.718 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Bastia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bastia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Bastia kick off?
Dijon vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Bastia?
Dijon 2 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Dijon vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Bastia part of?
Dijon vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 28% chance of winning, Bastia a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dijon and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Bastia in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.14x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.75x) against Dijon's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
28%
3.60
33%
3.02
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.35
1.29
Bastia xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dijon and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Dijon and 1.29 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dijon's recent record stands at 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, a 0.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dijon have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Bastia have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 0.33 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Dijon, 33% for Bastia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dijon) and 33% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dijon's games and 33% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dijon's recent games and 33% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Bastia tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Bastia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Bastia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Bastia 2-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.06 xG and Bastia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.14 / defence 1.51 against Bastia attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 28% | Draw 33% | Bastia 39%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 67%, Bastia 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.17. Form was overturned, with Dijon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.