Clermont Foot 2-2 Nancy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face Nancy.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Clermont Foot host Nancy at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Clermont Foot — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Clermont Foot's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Nancy stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nancy's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Clermont Foot at 0.70 PPG versus Nancy's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Clermont Foot's games and 60% of Nancy's (from Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Nancy's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Clermont Foot have won 0, Nancy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended Clermont Foot 0–1 Nancy — a Nancy win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Nancy in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 59% versus Nancy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Nancy 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Nancy 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.875 / defence 0.998 | Nancy attack 0.714 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.141. Nancy's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 63 games and Nancy's last 29.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 35% | Nancy 25%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.51 | Draw 2.87 | Nancy 3.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Nancy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 60% (last 10 home games) | Nancy 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights