Clermont Foot 4-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 46% versus Guingamp 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 46% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and Guingamp 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.663 / defence 1.108 | Guingamp attack 0.938 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.088. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Clermont Foot games / 45 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Guingamp 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Clermont Foot 0.81 / Guingamp 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.663 / def 1.108 | Guingamp attack 0.938 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Guingamp xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Guingamp kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Clermont Foot 4 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp part of?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 26% chance of winning, Guingamp a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Clermont Foot and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.66x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
26%
3.81
31%
3.24
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.95
1.13
Guingamp xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.13 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 6W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 15W 12D 14L from 41 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 4D 7L from 20 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.24 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 6W 12D 23L in their last 41 games (0.73 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.80 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Guingamp in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 45%, Guingamp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Clermont Foot) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 40%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 50% of games; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 40% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Guingamp tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Clermont Foot run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Guingamp 4-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and Guingamp 1.13 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.66 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 43%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 46%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.