Caen 1-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Caen take on PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees PAU travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano to take on Caen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 3W 1D 2L from 6 Ligue 2 matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen at Stade Michel d'Ornano this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
PAU — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Caen 1.67 PPG, PAU 1.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Caen in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Caen 17% | PAU 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 33% | PAU 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 0.99 xG and PAU 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.287 / defence 1.002 | PAU attack 0.641 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 0.718 / away 1.141. Caen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 0.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Caen games / 6 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 38% | Draw 39% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.63 | Draw 2.56 | PAU 4.35. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAU's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Caen 33% | PAU 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 38% | Draw 39% | PAU 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Caen 0.99 / PAU 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.287 / def 1.002 | PAU attack 0.641 / def 1.075 | league avg home 0.718 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.73
PAU xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs PAU kick off?
Caen vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs PAU?
Caen 1 - 2 PAU.
Where is Caen vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs PAU part of?
Caen vs PAU is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 38% chance of winning, PAU a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Caen vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Caen and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and PAU in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Caen's attack at 1.29x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.64
39%
2.59
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Caen xG
Total xG
1.73
0.73
PAU xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Caen and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Caen and 0.73 for PAU, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Caen have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.67 PPG, PAU on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Caen have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; PAU in 17%.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; PAU in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and PAU in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while PAU have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Caen or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, PAU in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, PAU have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Caen 2-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Caen and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Caen 17% BTTS, PAU 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Caen and 17% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; PAU in 50%; Caen have failed to score in 33% of games; PAU in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Caen's recent matches and 17% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Caen's recent games and 17% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and PAU tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAU in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Caen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Caen 1-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.99 xG and PAU 0.73 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAU outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.29 / defence 1.00 against PAU attack 0.64 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 38% | Draw 39% | PAU 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 33%, PAU 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.67 PPG, PAU 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Caen shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.