Caen 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Niort travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano to take on Caen in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Caen stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Caen's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Caen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Niort — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Niort have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Caen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Caen, 1 for Niort and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2022, ended Caen 0–2 Niort — a Niort win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Caen trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Niort trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 52% versus Niort 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 40% | Niort 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.90 xG and Niort 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.171 / defence 0.918 | Niort attack 0.954 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.115. Niort's defence rating of 1.353 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Caen's projected output up. Data: built from Caen's last 48 games and Niort's last 48.
Result probabilities: Caen 59% | Draw 22% | Niort 19%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.69 | Draw 4.54 | Niort 5.28. The model has a clear lean to Caen (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Caen's last 10 home games and Niort's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 70% (last 10 home games) | Niort 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 59% | Draw 22% | Niort 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Caen 1.90 / Niort 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.171 / def 0.918 | Niort attack 0.954 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Caen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Niort xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Niort FAQs
What time does Caen vs Niort kick off?
Caen vs Niort kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Niort?
Caen 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Caen vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Niort part of?
Caen vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 59% chance of winning, Niort a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Caen and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Caen vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.17) and Niort's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 48 games and Niort's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.54
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Caen xG
Total xG
2.88
0.98
Niort xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
35.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Caen and 0.98 for Niort, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Caen have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 14D 17L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 14W 12D 22L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.35 PPG, Niort on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 4D 8L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 6D 12L from their last 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.98 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Niort
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Caen vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Niort in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Niort have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Niort away?
Caen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.67 PPG; Niort away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 22 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Caen's record when hosting Niort specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 3, Niort have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2023: Niort 1-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Niort?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 50%, Niort 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Caen) and 50% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Caen's recent matches and 38% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Caen and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Caen's recent games and 50% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Caen's recent matches and 67% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Niort 1-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.90 xG and Niort 0.98 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Niort landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against Niort attack 0.95 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 59% | Draw 22% | Niort 19%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 40%, Niort 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.35 PPG, Niort 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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