Caen 0-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Niort travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano to take on Caen. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's home record at Stade Michel d'Ornano: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Niort — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Niort are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Caen, 0 for Niort and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Caen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Caen trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Niort trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 53% versus Niort 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 42% | Niort 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.28 xG and Niort 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.024 / defence 1.077 | Niort attack 0.911 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.998. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Caen games / 19 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 43% | Draw 29% | Niort 28%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Niort 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Niort (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 40% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 43% | Draw 29% | Niort 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Caen 1.28 / Niort 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.024 / def 1.077 | Niort attack 0.911 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Caen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Niort xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Niort kick off?
Caen vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 January 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Niort?
Caen 0 - 2 Niort.
Where is Caen vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Niort part of?
Caen vs Niort is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 43% chance of winning, Niort a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Caen and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Niort?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 0 | Niort 0W.
What form are Caen and Niort in?
Caen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Niort (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.02) and Niort's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.44
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Caen xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Niort xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Caen and 0.98 for Niort, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Caen have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 7D 8L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Niort are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Caen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
On the road, Niort have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.21 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Niort in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Niort in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Niort have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Niort away?
Niort's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.00 PPG; Niort away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Caen or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Niort in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Niort runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Caen's record when hosting Niort specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Niort have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Niort 1-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Niort?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 40%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Caen) and 60% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Caen have failed to score in 30% of games; Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Caen's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Caen's recent games and 60% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Niort tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Niort in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Caen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Caen 0-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.28 xG and Niort 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Caen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Niort outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Niort attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 21/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 43% | Draw 29% | Niort 28%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 42%, Niort 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Niort's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.