Caen 0-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel d'Ornano plays host to Caen versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Caen have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Caen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Estac Troyes's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Caen's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Estac Troyes edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Caen 0–0 Estac Troyes — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 51% versus Estac Troyes 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 51% | Estac Troyes 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.869 / defence 0.943 | Estac Troyes attack 0.747 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.137. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Caen's last 47 games and Estac Troyes's last 47.
Result probabilities: Caen 48% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 23%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.06 | Draw 3.50 | Estac Troyes 4.37. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Caen at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Caen's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 40% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 48% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Caen 1.31 / Estac Troyes 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.869 / def 0.943 | Estac Troyes attack 0.747 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Caen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Estac Troyes xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Caen vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Caen vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Caen 0 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Caen vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Estac Troyes part of?
Caen vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 48% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Caen and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Caen vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (0.87) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.75x) against Caen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 47 games and Estac Troyes's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.50
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Caen xG
Total xG
2.11
0.80
Estac Troyes xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Caen and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Caen and 0.80 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Caen's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 21L across 47 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Caen by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Caen have managed 13W 4D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 2W 11D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 10W 16D 21L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Estac Troyes away?
Caen's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.79 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Caen or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Caen
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Estac Troyes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Caen and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 88% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 33%, Estac Troyes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Caen) and 42% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Caen's recent matches and 46% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Caen and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Caen's recent games and 42% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 0.80 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Estac Troyes attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 48% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 23%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 51%, Estac Troyes 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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