Caen 2-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Caen at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Caen host Amiens at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Amiens have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Caen at 1.40 PPG versus Amiens's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Caen: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Amiens, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Caen winning.
The historical record gives Caen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 46% versus Amiens 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 46% | Amiens 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.23 xG and Amiens 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.894 / defence 0.846 | Amiens attack 0.791 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. Data: 43 Caen games / 43 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 30% | Amiens 24%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 4.17. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Caen dominate the H2H record, yet Amiens are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Caen 20% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 30% | Amiens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Caen 1.23 / Amiens 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.894 / def 0.846 | Amiens attack 0.791 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Caen (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Amiens xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Amiens kick off?
Caen vs Amiens kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Amiens?
Caen 2 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Caen vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Amiens part of?
Caen vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 46% chance of winning, Amiens a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Caen and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Amiens?
Record (6 meetings): Caen 3W | Draws 3 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Caen and Amiens in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Amiens (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Caen vs Amiens?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Caen's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.37
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Caen xG
Total xG
2.03
0.81
Amiens xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Caen and 0.81 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Caen have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 18W 8D 17L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens's form line: 15W 17D 11L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.44 PPG, Amiens on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.95 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Amiens in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Amiens have gone 15W 17D 11L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Amiens away?
Caen's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.76 PPG; Amiens away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Caen or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Amiens in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Caen
3
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 4, Amiens have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Amiens 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Amiens?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Caen 29% BTTS, Amiens 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Caen and 33% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Amiens in 33%; Amiens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Caen's recent matches and 33% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Caen's recent games and 33% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Amiens tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Amiens in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Amiens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.23 xG and Amiens 0.81 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Amiens attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 46% | Draw 30% | Amiens 24%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 46%, Amiens 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.44 PPG, Amiens 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.