Bastia 2-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bastia) versus 1.60 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bastia, 1 for Paris FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 50% versus Paris FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 29% | Paris FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.96 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.862 / defence 0.980 | Paris FC attack 0.863 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Data: 34 Bastia games / 34 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 35% | Draw 35% | Paris FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Paris FC 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 50% | Paris FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 35% | Draw 35% | Paris FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Bastia 0.96 / Paris FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.862 / def 0.980 | Paris FC attack 0.863 / def 1.180 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Paris FC xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Paris FC kick off?
Bastia vs Paris FC kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Bastia 2 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Bastia vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Paris FC part of?
Bastia vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 35% chance of winning, Paris FC a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
35%
2.85
35%
2.87
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.83
0.87
Paris FC xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 13.9 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Bastia and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Bastia and 0.87 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 16D 10L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.85 PPG from 34 outings (18W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Bastia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 4W 12D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.41 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Paris FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 8W 16D 10L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 18W 9D 7L in their last 34 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.41 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Bastia or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Paris FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 47%, Paris FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Bastia and 41% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bastia's recent matches and 47% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Bastia's recent games and 41% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Paris FC tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Paris FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Paris FC 2-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.96 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.86 / defence 0.98 against Paris FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 35% | Draw 35% | Paris FC 30%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 29%, Paris FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Bastia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.