Bastia 1-0 Martigues – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Martigues fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Martigues travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Armand-Césari, Bastia have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Martigues have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Martigues, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Martigues away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 1.50 PPG, Martigues 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 0 for Martigues and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Martigues trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 48% versus Martigues 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 32% | Martigues 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.40 xG and Martigues 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.087 / defence 0.808 | Martigues attack 0.780 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Data: 63 Bastia games / 25 Martigues games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 55% | Draw 28% | Martigues 18%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Martigues 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 60% | Martigues 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 55% | Draw 28% | Martigues 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Bastia 1.40 / Martigues 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.087 / def 0.808 | Martigues attack 0.780 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bastia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Martigues xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Martigues kick off?
Bastia vs Martigues kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Martigues?
Bastia 1 - 0 Martigues.
Where is Bastia vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Martigues part of?
Bastia vs Martigues is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 55% chance of winning, Martigues a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Martigues will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Martigues?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Martigues 0W.
What form are Bastia and Martigues in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Martigues (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.09) and Martigues's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Martigues's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.62
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.06
0.67
Martigues xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Bastia and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bastia and 0.67 for Martigues, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Martigues?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 7W 13D 5L from 25 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Martigues, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 15L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Martigues is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Martigues heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 5W 7D 0L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Martigues's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.96 PPG overall record — Martigues travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.72 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues in 24%.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Martigues
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Martigues in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 7W 13D 5L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while Martigues have gone 7W 3D 15L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Martigues away?
Bastia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.83 PPG; Martigues away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Bastia or Martigues been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Martigues in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bastia
0
Draws
0
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Martigues?
From 2 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Martigues have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Martigues last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Bastia 1-0 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Martigues?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Martigues are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 50%, Martigues 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bastia) and 42% (Martigues).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Martigues in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Martigues?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bastia's recent matches and 33% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Martigues usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bastia's recent games and 42% of Martigues's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Martigues tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Martigues in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Martigues 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Martigues 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.40 xG and Martigues 0.67 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against Martigues attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 55% | Draw 28% | Martigues 18%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 32%, Martigues 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Martigues's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.