Bastia 1-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Armand Cesari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 August 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Armand Cesari — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand Cesari than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 1.20 PPG, Guingamp 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bastia, 1 for Guingamp and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 50% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 36% | Guingamp 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.44 xG and Guingamp 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.053 / defence 0.968 | Guingamp attack 0.965 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.091. Data: 36 Bastia games / 37 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 47% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 3.70. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 60% | Guingamp 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 47% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bastia 1.44 / Guingamp 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.053 / def 0.968 | Guingamp attack 0.965 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Bastia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Guingamp kick off?
Bastia vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Bastia 1 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is Bastia vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Guingamp part of?
Bastia vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 47% chance of winning, Guingamp a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bastia and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Bastia 3W | Draws 4 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.05x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.75
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.46
1.02
Guingamp xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bastia and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bastia and 1.02 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 16D 9L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (15W 5D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.36 PPG, Guingamp on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 9W 8D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (7W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.53 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 11W 16D 9L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 15W 5D 16L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Guingamp away?
Bastia's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.94 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Bastia or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bastia
4
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Guingamp?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 56%, Guingamp 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bastia) and 56% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bastia's games and 56% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bastia vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bastia's recent games and 56% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Guingamp tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Bastia 1-3 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.44 xG and Guingamp 1.02 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 47% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 27%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 36%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.36 PPG, Guingamp 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.