Bastia 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Armand-Césari — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 1.10 PPG, Guingamp 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 1 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 45% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 41% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.49 xG and Guingamp 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.135 / defence 1.353 | Guingamp attack 1.065 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.105. Data: 49 Bastia games / 49 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 36% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 40%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Guingamp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 70% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 36% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Bastia 1.49 / Guingamp 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.135 / def 1.353 | Guingamp attack 1.065 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Guingamp xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Guingamp kick off?
Bastia vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Bastia 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Bastia vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Guingamp part of?
Bastia vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 36% chance of winning, Guingamp a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bastia and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.14x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.81
25%
4.06
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.09
1.59
Guingamp xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bastia and 1.59 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 49 games, going 20W 12D 17L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.45 PPG from 49 outings (19W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.47 PPG, Guingamp on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 14W 4D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.41 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 19W 14D 16L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Guingamp away?
Bastia's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.92 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Bastia or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bastia
4
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Guingamp?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 42%, Guingamp 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bastia) and 42% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bastia's recent matches and 58% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bastia's recent games and 42% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Guingamp tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 12, as Bastia and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.49 xG and Guingamp 1.59 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.14 / defence 1.35 against Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 36% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 40%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 41%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.47 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.