Bastia 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade Armand-Césari — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Amiens (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Amiens away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bastia's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Amiens's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bastia, 1 for Amiens and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Amiens 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 31% | Amiens 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.91 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.200 / defence 0.882 | Amiens attack 0.915 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.079. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Bastia games / 70 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 62% | Draw 22% | Amiens 16%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Amiens 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 30% | Amiens 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 62% | Draw 22% | Amiens 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Bastia 1.91 / Amiens 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.200 / def 0.882 | Amiens attack 0.915 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Bastia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Amiens xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Amiens kick off?
Bastia vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Bastia 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Bastia vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Amiens part of?
Bastia vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 62% chance of winning, Amiens a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bastia and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 2 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Bastia and Amiens in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.92x) against Bastia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.54
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.78
0.87
Amiens xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
41.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bastia and 0.87 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 70 games, going 25W 23D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.20 PPG from 70 outings (20W 24D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Bastia against 1.20 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bastia's home form reads 15W 14D 6L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.94 points per game from 35 outings (6W 15D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.09 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Amiens in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 25W 23D 22L in their last 70 games (1.40 PPG), while Amiens have gone 20W 24D 26L in their last 70 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Amiens away?
Bastia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.69 PPG; Amiens away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Bastia or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Amiens in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bastia
5
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Amiens have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 37%, Amiens 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Bastia and 37% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 29% of games; Amiens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Bastia's recent matches and 57% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Bastia's recent games and 37% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Amiens tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.91 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bastia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.20 / defence 0.88 against Amiens attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 62% | Draw 22% | Amiens 16%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 31%, Amiens 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.40 PPG, Amiens 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.