Auxerre 3-2 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Sochaux travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.80 PPG, Sochaux 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Sochaux and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sochaux trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 52% versus Sochaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Sochaux 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.28 xG and Sochaux 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.056 / defence 1.278 | Sochaux attack 1.031 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 0.946. Sochaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Auxerre games / 27 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 36%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Sochaux 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Sochaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.28 / Sochaux 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.056 / def 1.278 | Sochaux attack 1.031 / def 1.221 | league avg home 0.991 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sochaux xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Sochaux kick off?
Auxerre vs Sochaux kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Auxerre 3 - 2 Sochaux.
Where is Auxerre vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Sochaux part of?
Auxerre vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 37% chance of winning, Sochaux a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Sochaux?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Sochaux 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Sochaux in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Sochaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.72
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.52
1.25
Sochaux xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.25 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 27 games, going 13W 9D 5L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (13W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.78 PPG, Sochaux on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.69 points per game from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.11 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Sochaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 13W 9D 5L in their last 27 games (1.78 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Sochaux away?
Auxerre's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.69 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sochaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Sochaux?
From 3 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Sochaux have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Auxerre 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Sochaux?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Sochaux 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Auxerre) and 54% (Sochaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sochaux in 38%; Sochaux in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 54% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Auxerre's matches and 54% of Sochaux's.
Do Auxerre and Sochaux tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Sochaux 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Sochaux 3-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.28 xG and Sochaux 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.06 / defence 1.28 against Sochaux attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 37% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 36%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Sochaux 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Sochaux's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.78 PPG, Sochaux 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sochaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.