Auxerre 3-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Auxerre at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Quevilly encounter.

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Match Analysis

Auxerre host Quevilly at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Auxerre — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Auxerre at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Quevilly stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Quevilly away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Auxerre have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Auxerre's games and 80% of Quevilly's (from Auxerre's last 10 home games and Quevilly's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Auxerre have won 1, Quevilly 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Auxerre 1–0 Quevilly — a Auxerre win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Auxerre trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Quevilly trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Quevilly 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Quevilly 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Quevilly have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 2.00 xG and Quevilly 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.256 / defence 1.059 | Quevilly attack 1.178 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. Auxerre carry an above-average attack rating of 1.256 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Quevilly's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Auxerre's last 15 games and Quevilly's last 53.

Result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.97 | Draw 4.61 | Quevilly 3.61. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Quevilly's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Quevilly 80% (last 10 away games).

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