Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 0.50 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 61% versus Guingamp 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.23 xG and Guingamp 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.351 / defence 1.064 | Guingamp attack 0.944 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Guingamp's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Auxerre games / 59 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Guingamp lead the H2H ledger, but Auxerre carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Guingamp 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Auxerre 1.23 / Guingamp 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.351 / def 1.064 | Guingamp attack 0.944 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Guingamp kick off?
Auxerre vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Auxerre vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Guingamp part of?
Auxerre vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Auxerre and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Guingamp in?
Auxerre (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.94x) against Auxerre's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.59
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.36
1.14
Guingamp xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.14 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 20W 17D 22L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 19L across 59 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Auxerre against 1.46 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 11W 9D 9L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 12W 9D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 17D 19L in their last 59 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.45 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Guingamp in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 55%, Guingamp 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 34% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 41%; Auxerre have failed to score in 28% of games; Guingamp in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Auxerre's recent matches and 48% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Auxerre's recent games and 34% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Guingamp tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 22, as Auxerre and Guingamp drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.23 xG and Guingamp 1.14 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.35 / defence 1.06 against Guingamp attack 0.94 / defence 0.74, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 34%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.31 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.