Annecy 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Saint Etienne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.30 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Annecy have won 1, Saint Etienne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 2–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 39% versus Saint Etienne 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 46% | Saint Etienne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.150 / defence 1.203 | Saint Etienne attack 1.161 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 0.929. Data: 41 Annecy games / 41 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 45% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 31%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 3.23. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Saint Etienne 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 45% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Annecy 1.60 / Saint Etienne 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.150 / def 1.203 | Saint Etienne attack 1.161 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.240 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Annecy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Saint Etienne xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Annecy vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Annecy 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Annecy vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Saint Etienne part of?
Annecy vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 45% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Annecy and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Annecy and Saint Etienne in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.15) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.09
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.90
1.30
Saint Etienne xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Annecy and 1.30 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 13D 16L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.44 PPG from 41 outings (16W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.20 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Annecy's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Annecy are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.61 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Saint Etienne away?
Annecy's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.70 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Annecy or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 30%, Saint Etienne 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Annecy) and 70% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 30% of Annecy's games and 80% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 70% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.30 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Saint Etienne attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 45% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 31%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 46%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.20 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.