Annecy vs Reims – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Reims (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Annecy face Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Reims at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 3W 7D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Reims — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Annecy, 2 for Reims and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Reims 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.98 xG and Reims 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.931 / defence 1.016 | Reims attack 1.011 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. Reims's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Annecy games / 43 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 26% | Draw 29% | Reims 45%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.22. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 70% | Reims 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 26% | Draw 29% | Reims 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Annecy 0.98 / Reims 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.931 / def 1.016 | Reims attack 1.011 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Reims xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Reims kick off?
Annecy vs Reims is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Reims part of?
Annecy vs Reims is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 26% chance of winning, Reims a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Annecy and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Reims?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 2W.
What form are Annecy and Reims in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
26%
3.82
29%
3.48
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.36
1.37
Reims xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
7%
15.08
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Annecy and 1.37 for Reims, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 8D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.70 PPG from 43 outings (18W 19D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.51 PPG, Reims on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (7W 11D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Reims in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 19D 6L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.48 PPG; Reims away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Annecy or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reims in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Reims runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Reims 3-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 67%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Annecy) and 43% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims in 38%; Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Annecy's games and 57% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Annecy's recent games and 43% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Reims tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.