Annecy vs Montpellier – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Annecy and Montpellier meet at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Annecy, 1.60 for Montpellier — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Annecy 0W, Montpellier 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Montpellier — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 57% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 57% | Montpellier 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.01 xG and Montpellier 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.925 / defence 1.021 | Montpellier attack 0.901 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Annecy games / 42 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 40%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Montpellier 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Montpellier are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 70% | Montpellier 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Annecy 1.01 / Montpellier 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.925 / def 1.021 | Montpellier attack 0.901 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Montpellier xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Montpellier kick off?
Annecy vs Montpellier is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Montpellier part of?
Annecy vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 30% chance of winning, Montpellier a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Annecy and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Annecy and Montpellier in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.90x) against Annecy's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
30%
3.32
30%
3.34
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.23
1.21
Montpellier xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Annecy and 1.21 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 19W 8D 15L from 42 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 12L across 42 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Annecy against 1.57 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 8W 7D 6L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.17 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Montpellier in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 8D 15L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Montpellier away?
Annecy's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.48 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Annecy or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Montpellier in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Montpellier?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Annecy 0-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 67%, Montpellier 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 52% for Annecy and 14% for Montpellier.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Montpellier in 43%; Montpellier in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Annecy's recent matches and 29% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Annecy's recent games and 14% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Montpellier tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.