Annecy 1-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Metz have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 1.10 PPG lead over Metz (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Annecy 0W, Metz 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–5 with Metz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Metz — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 51% versus Metz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 54% | Metz 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.32 xG and Metz 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.158 / defence 0.804 | Metz attack 0.732 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.114. Data: 37 Annecy games / 3 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 31% | Metz 17%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Metz 5.88. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Metz lead the H2H ledger, but Annecy carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Metz 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 31% | Metz 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Annecy 1.32 / Metz 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.158 / def 0.804 | Metz attack 0.732 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Metz xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Metz kick off?
Annecy vs Metz kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Metz?
Annecy 1 - 1 Metz.
Where is Annecy vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Metz part of?
Annecy vs Metz is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, Metz a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Annecy and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 2 | Metz 2W.
What form are Annecy and Metz in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Metz (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.16x the league average against Metz's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.73x) against Annecy's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.94
31%
3.19
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.98
0.66
Metz xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
5%
21.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Annecy and 0.66 for Metz, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 7D 13L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Metz sit at 0.59 PPG from 37 outings (4W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Metz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 0.44 points per game from 18 outings (1W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 0.95 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Metz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Metz in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Metz have gone 4W 10D 23L in their last 37 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Metz away?
Annecy's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.67 PPG; Metz away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Annecy or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Metz in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 5-1 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
From 5 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 61%, Metz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Annecy) and 67% (Metz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Metz in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Annecy's games and 50% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Annecy's matches and 67% of Metz's.
Do Annecy and Metz tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Metz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Metz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 4, as Annecy and Metz drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.32 xG and Metz 0.66 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.16 / defence 0.80 against Metz attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 31% | Metz 17%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 54%, Metz 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Metz's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.