Annecy vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 0.50 PPG lead over Guingamp (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.28 xG and Guingamp 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.925 / defence 1.021 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Annecy games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 30%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 70% | Guingamp 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Annecy 1.28 / Guingamp 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.925 / def 1.021 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Annecy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Guingamp kick off?
Annecy vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Guingamp part of?
Annecy vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 41% chance of winning, Guingamp a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Guingamp?
Record (9 meetings): Annecy 4W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 3W.
What form are Annecy and Guingamp in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.93) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.79x) against Annecy's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.45
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.07
Guingamp xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Annecy and 1.07 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 19W 8D 16L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Annecy against 1.12 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Guingamp away?
Annecy's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.48 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Annecy or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Guingamp?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Guingamp have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Guingamp 2-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Guingamp?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 67%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Annecy) and 62% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Annecy's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Annecy's matches and 62% of Guingamp's.
Do Annecy and Guingamp tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.