Annecy 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bastia — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Annecy's 30% rate and Bastia's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Annecy, 3 for Bastia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Bastia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.895 / defence 1.106 | Bastia attack 0.815 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.039. Data: 66 Annecy games / 66 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 27% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 3.85. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Bastia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 27% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Annecy 1.38 / Bastia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.895 / def 1.106 | Bastia attack 0.815 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Annecy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Bastia kick off?
Annecy vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Annecy 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Annecy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bastia part of?
Annecy vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 47% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Annecy and Bastia in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.65
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.32
0.94
Bastia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Annecy and 0.94 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 23W 17D 26L from 66 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 21L across 66 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.30 PPG, Bastia on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 12W 8D 12L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 17D 26L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Bastia have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bastia away?
Annecy's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.38 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 47%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Annecy) and 38% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bastia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 38% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bastia tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bastia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 29, as Annecy and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Bastia attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 47% | Draw 27% | Bastia 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.30 PPG, Bastia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.