Angers 3-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Quevilly meet at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Angers (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond Kopa: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond Kopa. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Angers's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Quevilly's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Angers, 0 for Quevilly and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Angers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Quevilly — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 50% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 55% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.66 xG and Quevilly 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.135 / defence 0.655 | Quevilly attack 1.153 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Angers's defence rating of 0.655 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Angers games / 58 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 56% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 19%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Quevilly 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Angers (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 10% | Quevilly 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 56% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Angers 1.66 / Quevilly 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.135 / def 0.655 | Quevilly attack 1.153 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Angers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Quevilly xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Quevilly kick off?
Angers vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Quevilly?
Angers 3 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Angers vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Quevilly part of?
Angers vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 56% chance of winning, Quevilly a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Angers and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Angers and Quevilly in?
Angers (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.14) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (1.15x) against Angers's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.10
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Angers xG
Total xG
2.51
0.86
Quevilly xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
27.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Angers and 0.86 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 10D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (15W 22D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Angers against 1.16 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 11W 5D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 16W 10D 32L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 15W 22D 21L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Quevilly away?
Angers's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.31 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Angers
0
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Quevilly?
From 2 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Quevilly have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Angers 3-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Quevilly?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 55%, Quevilly 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Angers) and 45% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Quevilly in 34%; Quevilly in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Angers's recent matches and 41% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Angers's recent games and 45% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Quevilly tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Quevilly 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Quevilly 3-2 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.66 xG and Quevilly 0.86 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.14 / defence 0.66 against Quevilly attack 1.15 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 56% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 19%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 55%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.00 PPG, Quevilly 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.