Amiens 1-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Sochaux meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sochaux (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Amiens 1W, Sochaux 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 49% versus Sochaux 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 39% | Sochaux 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.96 xG and Sochaux 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.784 / defence 1.118 | Sochaux attack 1.116 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.093. Amiens's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Amiens games / 71 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 26% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 46%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Sochaux 2.17. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Sochaux 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 26% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Amiens 0.96 / Sochaux 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.784 / def 1.118 | Sochaux attack 1.116 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sochaux xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Sochaux kick off?
Amiens vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Sochaux?
Amiens 1 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Amiens vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Sochaux part of?
Amiens vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 26% chance of winning, Sochaux a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Amiens and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Sochaux?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 2 | Sochaux 0W.
What form are Amiens and Sochaux in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sochaux (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.12x) against Amiens's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
26%
3.87
29%
3.49
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.32
1.36
Sochaux xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
15.15
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Amiens and 1.36 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens's recent record stands at 20W 25D 26L from 71 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 18L across 71 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 14W 9D 12L from 35 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sochaux's away record stands at 14W 9D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.38 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Sochaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 20W 25D 26L in their last 71 games (1.20 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 34W 19D 18L in their last 71 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Sochaux away?
Amiens's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.46 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Amiens or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sochaux in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Amiens have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
2
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Sochaux have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Amiens 1-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Sochaux?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 40%, Sochaux 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Amiens) and 51% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sochaux in 40%; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; Sochaux in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Amiens's recent matches and 49% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Amiens's recent games and 51% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Sochaux tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Sochaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Sochaux 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.96 xG and Sochaux 1.36 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Sochaux attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 26% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 46%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 39%, Sochaux 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sochaux's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Amiens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.