Amiens 2-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Rodez (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Amiens. A 0.90 PPG lead over Rodez (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 39% versus Rodez 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 32% | Rodez 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.07 xG and Rodez 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.985 / defence 0.701 | Rodez attack 1.035 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.137. Amiens's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Amiens games / 44 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 41% | Draw 32% | Rodez 28%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Rodez 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Rodez 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 41% | Draw 32% | Rodez 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Amiens 1.07 / Rodez 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.985 / def 0.701 | Rodez attack 1.035 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Amiens (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Rodez xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Rodez kick off?
Amiens vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Amiens 2 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Amiens vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Rodez part of?
Amiens vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 41% chance of winning, Rodez a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Amiens and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
Record (6 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 3 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Amiens and Rodez in?
Amiens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Amiens vs Rodez?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.98x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.03x) against Amiens's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.17
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.89
0.82
Rodez xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Amiens and 0.82 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 17D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.36 PPG from 44 outings (16W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Amiens against 1.36 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 8W 10D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 64%.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Rodez in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 15W 17D 12L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Rodez have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Rodez away?
Amiens's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.55 PPG; Rodez away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Amiens or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Amiens
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 41%, Rodez 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Amiens) and 54% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 32% of games; Rodez in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Amiens's recent matches and 59% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Amiens's recent games and 54% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Rodez tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Rodez in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Rodez 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Rodez 0.82 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.98 / defence 0.70 against Rodez attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 41% | Draw 32% | Rodez 28%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 32%, Rodez 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.41 PPG, Rodez 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.