Amiens 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Estac Troyes at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amiens at 1.00 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Estac Troyes 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 36% | Estac Troyes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.839 / defence 0.989 | Estac Troyes attack 0.621 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: 72 Amiens games / 34 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 47% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 22%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Estac Troyes 4.55. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 60% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 47% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Amiens 1.16 / Estac Troyes 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.839 / def 0.989 | Estac Troyes attack 0.621 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Amiens (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Estac Troyes xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Amiens 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Amiens vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Estac Troyes part of?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 47% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Amiens and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Amiens and Estac Troyes in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.84x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
47%
2.15
32%
3.17
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.86
0.70
Estac Troyes xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Amiens and 0.70 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 23W 23D 26L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 12W 24D 36L from 72 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Amiens are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (13W 11D 12L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 10D 22L from 36 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 65%.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 23W 23D 26L in their last 72 games (1.28 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 24D 36L in their last 72 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Estac Troyes away?
Amiens's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.39 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Amiens or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
5
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Estac Troyes 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Amiens) and 61% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amiens's games and 61% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amiens vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 61% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 0.70 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Estac Troyes attack 0.62 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 47% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 22%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Estac Troyes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.