Amiens 1-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Dijon meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Dijon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dijon away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Amiens against 1.40 for Dijon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Dijon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dijon — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 45% versus Dijon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 45% | Dijon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.52 xG and Dijon 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.291 / defence 0.926 | Dijon attack 0.882 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Amiens carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Amiens games / 29 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 55% | Draw 27% | Dijon 18%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Dijon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 20% | Dijon 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 55% | Draw 27% | Dijon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Amiens 1.52 / Dijon 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.291 / def 0.926 | Dijon attack 0.882 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Amiens (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Dijon xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Dijon kick off?
Amiens vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Dijon?
Amiens 1 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Amiens vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Dijon part of?
Amiens vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 55% chance of winning, Dijon a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Amiens and Dijon in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Amiens's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.88x) against Amiens's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
55%
1.80
27%
3.76
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.27
0.74
Dijon xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
4%
25.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Amiens and 0.74 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Dijon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 8W 12D 9L from 29 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 11W 4D 14L across 29 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Amiens against 1.28 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 7W 4D 3L from 14 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dijon's away record stands at 4W 2D 8L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Dijon in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Dijon have gone 11W 4D 14L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Dijon away?
Amiens's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.79 PPG; Dijon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Amiens or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dijon in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dijon won 3-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Amiens
1
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Dijon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Dijon 3-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 29%, Dijon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Amiens) and 50% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Dijon in 36%; Amiens have failed to score in 36% of games; Dijon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Amiens's recent matches and 43% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Amiens's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Dijon tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dijon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens and Dijon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 30, as Amiens and Dijon drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.52 xG and Dijon 0.74 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.29 / defence 0.93 against Dijon attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 55% | Draw 27% | Dijon 18%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 45%, Dijon 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.24 PPG, Dijon 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.