Amiens 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Amiens take on Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Auxerre travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.71 xG and Auxerre 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Amiens games / 0 Auxerre games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Amiens 21% | Draw 41% | Auxerre 38%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Auxerre 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 21% | Draw 41% | Auxerre 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Amiens 0.71 / Auxerre 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Auxerre xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Auxerre kick off?
Amiens vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Auxerre?
Amiens 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Amiens vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Auxerre part of?
Amiens vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 21% chance of winning, Auxerre a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Amiens and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Auxerre in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Auxerre xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Amiens and 1.00 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Pre-Season
Auxerre
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Auxerre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Amiens's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Amiens
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Amiens 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Amiens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.71 xG and Auxerre 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 21% | Draw 41% | Auxerre 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.