Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Guingamp meet at Stade Michel-Moretti in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade Michel-Moretti: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guingamp have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Guingamp arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajaccio lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 36% versus Guingamp 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 36% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.19 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.899 / defence 1.009 | Guingamp attack 1.147 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.014. Data: 59 Ajaccio games / 59 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 40% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Ajaccio 1.19 / Guingamp 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.899 / def 1.009 | Guingamp attack 1.147 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Guingamp kick off?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Ajaccio 0 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is Ajaccio vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Guingamp part of?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 36% chance of winning, Guingamp a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ajaccio and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 3W.
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.90x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.15x) against Ajaccio's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.36
1.17
Guingamp xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.17 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 19W 13D 27L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 24W 14D 21L from 59 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.46 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 13W 5D 11L from 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 24W 14D 21L in their last 59 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Guingamp away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.83 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Guingamp in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 45%, Guingamp 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Ajaccio) and 45% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Guingamp in 38%; Guingamp in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 45% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Ajaccio's recent games and 45% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Guingamp tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Ajaccio 0-3 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.19 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Guingamp outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 36%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.19 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.