Ajaccio 2-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Dunkerque meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dunkerque (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Ajaccio's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ajaccio have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Dunkerque in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ajaccio, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Ajaccio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 15% | Dunkerque 39%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 15% | Dunkerque 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.860 / defence 0.906 | Dunkerque attack 0.637 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Ajaccio games / 33 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 18%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Dunkerque 5.56. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 20% | Dunkerque 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG Ajaccio 1.15 / Dunkerque 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.860 / def 0.906 | Dunkerque attack 0.637 / def 1.432 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Dunkerque xG
31%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Dunkerque kick off?
Ajaccio vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Dunkerque?
Ajaccio 2 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Ajaccio vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Dunkerque part of?
Ajaccio vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 49% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Ajaccio and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Dunkerque in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.64x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
49%
2.06
33%
3.03
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.75
0.60
Dunkerque xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.60 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 19W 7D 7L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 8W 6D 19L from 33 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 3W 1D 12L from 16 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.48 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.76 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 15% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 19W 7D 7L in their last 33 games (1.94 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 8W 6D 19L in their last 33 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Dunkerque away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.06 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dunkerque have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
1
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Dunkerque have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Ajaccio 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 19% (Ajaccio) and 44% (Dunkerque) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Ajaccio and 50% for Dunkerque.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 38% of games; Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 44% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Ajaccio's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Dunkerque 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 0.60 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Dunkerque attack 0.64 / defence 1.43, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 49% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 18%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 15%, Dunkerque 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.