Toulouse 0-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Paris Saint Germain at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stadium de Toulouse — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium de Toulouse. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Paris Saint Germain 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 57% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.14 xG and Paris Saint Germain 3.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.928 / defence 1.166 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.799 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.609. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.799 — the away xG of 3.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Toulouse games / 42 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 8% | Draw 13% | Paris Saint Germain 79%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 12.50 | Draw 7.69 | Paris Saint Germain 1.27. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 3.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.52 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 8% | Draw 13% | Paris Saint Germain 79% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 66% | xG Toulouse 1.14 / Paris Saint Germain 3.38 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.928 / def 1.166 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.799 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.609 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
3.38
Paris Saint Germain xG
66%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Toulouse 0 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 8% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 79% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 3.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-3, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.1%), 0-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
8%
12.27
13%
7.68
79%
1.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
0 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Toulouse xG
Total xG
4.52
3.38
Paris Saint Germain xG
12.27
8%
Home win
7.68
13%
Draw
1.27
79%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
3%
29.22
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
0%
–
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 4.0 |
| 1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 4.6 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Toulouse and 3.38 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 4.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 42 games, going 24W 12D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.29 PPG from 42 outings (29W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 2.00 PPG, Paris Saint Germain on 2.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Toulouse's home form reads 14W 6D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 1.95 points per game from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.57 scored and 0.95 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Paris Saint Germain's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 24W 12D 6L in their last 42 games (2.00 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 29W 9D 4L in their last 42 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Toulouse's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.29 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
6
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 57%, Paris Saint Germain 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Toulouse and 67% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Toulouse's games and 62% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Toulouse's matches and 67% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 0-3 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.14 xG and Paris Saint Germain 3.38 xG, a combined 4.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.80 / defence 0.80, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 8% | Draw 13% | Paris Saint Germain 79%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 57%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 2.00 PPG, Paris Saint Germain 2.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris Saint Germain win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.