Toulouse 5-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nice make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Toulouse, 1.00 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Toulouse 2W, Nice 1W, 4D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Toulouse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 51% versus Nice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 51% | Nice 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.57 xG and Nice 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.866 / defence 1.117 | Nice attack 0.924 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.193. Data: 51 Toulouse games / 51 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 45% | Draw 25% | Nice 30%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Nice 3.33. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 45% | Draw 25% | Nice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Toulouse 1.57 / Nice 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.866 / def 1.117 | Nice attack 0.924 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Nice xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nice kick off?
Toulouse vs Nice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nice?
Toulouse 5 - 1 Nice.
Where is Toulouse vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nice part of?
Toulouse vs Nice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 45% chance of winning, Nice a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Toulouse and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nice?
Record (7 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 4 | Nice 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Nice in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Nice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.87) and Nice's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.92x) against Toulouse's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.02
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.80
1.23
Nice xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.23 for Nice, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse's recent record stands at 17W 14D 20L from 51 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 17L across 51 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Toulouse against 1.53 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 7W 6D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nice's season.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.69 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nice in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Nice have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nice away?
Toulouse's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.24 PPG; Nice away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nice in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Toulouse have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 5-1 on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Toulouse
4
Draws
1
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Nice have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Toulouse 5-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nice?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Toulouse, 76% for Nice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Toulouse and 68% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Toulouse's games and 76% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Toulouse's matches and 68% of Nice's.
Do Toulouse and Nice tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nice in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Nice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Nice 5-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.57 xG and Nice 1.23 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against Nice attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 45% | Draw 25% | Nice 30%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 51%, Nice 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Nice 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.