Toulouse 0-2 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Lyon meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lyon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lyon haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lyon have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Toulouse against 1.50 for Lyon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 48% versus Lyon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.43 xG and Lyon 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.950 / defence 1.025 | Lyon attack 1.004 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.287. Data: 33 Toulouse games / 34 Lyon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 38% | Draw 28% | Lyon 33%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Lyon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 40% | Lyon 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 38% | Draw 28% | Lyon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Toulouse 1.43 / Lyon 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.950 / def 1.025 | Lyon attack 1.004 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lyon kick off?
Toulouse vs Lyon kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse 0 - 2 Lyon.
Where is Toulouse vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lyon part of?
Toulouse vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 38% chance of winning, Lyon a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Toulouse and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
Record (8 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 2 | Lyon 4W.
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.00x) against Toulouse's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.54
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.75
1.32
Lyon xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.32 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 12W 8D 13L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. Toulouse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Lyon's form line: 17W 6D 10L from 33 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. Lyon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Toulouse against 1.73 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 5W 5D 6L from 16 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.58 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Pre-Season
Lyon
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Lyon have gone 17W 6D 10L in their last 33 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lyon away?
Toulouse's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.31 PPG; Lyon away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lyon in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 44%, Lyon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Toulouse) and 56% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lyon in 38%; Toulouse have failed to score in 38% of games; Lyon in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Toulouse's recent matches and 56% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of Lyon's.
Do Toulouse and Lyon tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lyon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Toulouse 0-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.43 xG and Lyon 1.32 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Lyon attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 38% | Draw 28% | Lyon 33%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lyon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.33 PPG, Lyon 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.