Toulouse 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lille have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Toulouse.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with Lille winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lille have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lille in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 49% versus Lille 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Lille 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 0.94 xG and Lille 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.838 / defence 1.086 | Lille attack 1.101 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Lille's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Toulouse games / 36 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 20% | Draw 29% | Lille 51%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Lille 1.96. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 40% | Lille 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 20% | Draw 29% | Lille 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Toulouse 0.94 / Lille 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.838 / def 1.086 | Lille attack 1.101 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lille (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Lille xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 18:45 on Thursday 3 September 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 20% chance of winning, Lille a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Record (8 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 6W.
What form are Toulouse and Lille in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.84x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
20%
5.02
29%
3.41
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.53
1.60
Lille xG
5.02
20%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
4%
24.79
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.60 for Lille, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 9D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.83 PPG from 35 outings (19W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 5W 6D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 2.00 points per game from 17 outings (11W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.51 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Lille have gone 19W 7D 9L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.24 PPG; Lille away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lille go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
7
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Toulouse 41% BTTS, Lille 24%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Toulouse) and 41% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 47%; Toulouse have failed to score in 41% of games; Lille in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Toulouse's recent matches and 24% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Toulouse's recent games and 41% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lille tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Toulouse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 0.94 xG and Lille 1.60 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Lille attack 1.10 / defence 0.74, drawn from 35/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 20% | Draw 29% | Lille 51%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Lille 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.