Toulouse 2-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Toulouse 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Toulouse, 2 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.34 xG and Clermont Foot 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.877 / defence 0.962 | Clermont Foot attack 0.921 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.241. Data: 41 Toulouse games / 41 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Clermont Foot 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Toulouse 1.34 / Clermont Foot 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.877 / def 0.962 | Clermont Foot attack 0.921 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Clermont Foot xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Toulouse vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Toulouse 2 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Toulouse vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Clermont Foot part of?
Toulouse vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Toulouse and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Clermont Foot in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.55
33%
2.99
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.44
1.10
Clermont Foot xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.10 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 10D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.44 PPG from 41 outings (17W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.27 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 6W 7D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.15 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.25 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Toulouse won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 60%, Clermont Foot 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Toulouse) and 45% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Toulouse's games and 60% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Toulouse's recent games and 45% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Clermont Foot finished level at 2-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.34 xG and Clermont Foot 1.10 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Clermont Foot attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.