Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Toulouse travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Strasbourg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Strasbourg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de la Meinau — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Strasbourg are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Strasbourg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Toulouse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Strasbourg, 2 for Toulouse and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 62% versus Toulouse 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 61% | Toulouse 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.59 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.974 / defence 0.932 | Toulouse attack 1.085 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.299. Data: 64 Strasbourg games / 65 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 60% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Strasbourg 1.59 / Toulouse 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.974 / def 0.932 | Toulouse attack 1.085 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Toulouse xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Toulouse kick off?
Strasbourg vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Strasbourg 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Strasbourg vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Toulouse part of?
Strasbourg vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 42% chance of winning, Toulouse a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Strasbourg and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Toulouse?
Record (7 meetings): Strasbourg 3W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 2W.
What form are Strasbourg and Toulouse in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.56
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
Toulouse xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.31 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg come into this having played 64 games, going 29W 16D 19L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.23 PPG from 64 outings (21W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.61 PPG, Toulouse on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Strasbourg's home form reads 18W 8D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (11W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 29W 16D 19L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Toulouse away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.94 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Strasbourg and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Toulouse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
2
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Toulouse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 62%, Toulouse 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Strasbourg) and 53% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Toulouse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 47% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Strasbourg vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Strasbourg's matches and 53% of Toulouse's.
Do Strasbourg and Toulouse tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Strasbourg 1-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.59 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Toulouse attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.61 PPG, Toulouse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.