Strasbourg 0-3 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Strasbourg welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade de la Meinau in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Strasbourg stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Strasbourg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stade Brestois 29 are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Strasbourg have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2023, ended Strasbourg 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Strasbourg trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Strasbourg 70% and Stade Brestois 29 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 55% | Stade Brestois 29 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Strasbourg surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Stade Brestois 29 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.11 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.941 / defence 1.191 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.079 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.108. Data: built from Strasbourg's last 60 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 60.
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 28% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 42%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 3.60 | Draw 3.35 | Stade Brestois 29 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Strasbourg 70% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 28% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Strasbourg 1.11 / Stade Brestois 29 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.941 / def 1.191 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.079 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Stade Brestois 29 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Strasbourg 0 - 3 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 28% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (0.94) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Strasbourg's last 60 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
28%
3.60
30%
3.35
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.42
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.42 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 20L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.08 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 9W 10D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Strasbourg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Strasbourg (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Strasbourg
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 22W 18D 20L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.23 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Feb 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won Strasbourg 0-3 Stade Brestois 29.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
3
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Strasbourg have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 70%, Stade Brestois 29 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Strasbourg) and 47% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Strasbourg's games and 57% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Strasbourg's recent games and 47% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 63% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stade Brestois 29 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Strasbourg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Strasbourg 0-3 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.11 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.42 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 28% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 42%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 55%, Stade Brestois 29 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.08 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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