Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 host Reims at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 outings — a 0.44 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reims — All Games: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Reims's 1.11 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Stade Brestois 29's 0.44 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 100% and Reims 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 56% | Reims 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.09 xG and Reims 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.869 / defence 1.413 | Reims attack 0.730 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.227. Data: 9 Stade Brestois 29 games / 9 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 28% | Draw 36% | Reims 36%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Reims 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 100% | Reims 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 28% | Draw 36% | Reims 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.09 / Reims 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.869 / def 1.413 | Reims attack 0.730 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Reims xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 28% chance of winning, Reims a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.87) and Reims's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
28%
3.58
36%
2.80
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Reims xG
3.58
28%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.27 for Reims, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 0W 4D 5L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 3L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reims by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Reims have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 0.50 PPG; Reims away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Reims in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
6
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Reims have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stade Brestois 29 at 100%, Reims at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 25% (Reims).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 50% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 25% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Reims tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Reims in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.09 xG and Reims 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.87 / defence 1.41 against Reims attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 28% | Draw 36% | Reims 36%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 56%, Reims 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.