Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 host Clermont Foot at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Brestois 29 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 65% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 47% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.59 xG and Clermont Foot 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.993 / defence 1.316 | Clermont Foot attack 0.752 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.204. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Stade Brestois 29 games / 34 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 47% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 29%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Clermont Foot 3.45. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Clermont Foot 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 47% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.59 / Clermont Foot 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.993 / def 1.316 | Clermont Foot attack 0.752 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Clermont Foot xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 47% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 0.99x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
Clermont Foot xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.19 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 12W 9D 13L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Clermont Foot's form line: 8W 9D 17L from 34 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.32 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.03 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Clermont Foot away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.38 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 56%, Clermont Foot 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 38% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Clermont Foot 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.59 xG and Clermont Foot 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.99 / defence 1.32 against Clermont Foot attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 47% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 29%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 47%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.32 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.