Saint Etienne 0-2 Rennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Rennes travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 0.80 PPG, Rennes 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rennes, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Saint Etienne.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 0–5 with Rennes winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rennes have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rennes trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 37% versus Rennes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 43% | Rennes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.60 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / defence 0.964 | Rennes attack 0.907 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.307. Rennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Saint Etienne games / 54 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Rennes 4.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 40% | Rennes 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.60 / Rennes 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / def 0.964 | Rennes attack 0.907 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rennes xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rennes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rennes kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Saint Etienne 0 - 2 Rennes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rennes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Rennes a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Rennes 3W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Rennes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Rennes (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.35
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.74
1.14
Rennes xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.14 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 10D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (18W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.46 PPG, Rennes on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 15W 4D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.48 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Rennes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 10D 21L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Rennes have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rennes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.88 PPG; Rennes away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Rennes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rennes have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Rennes won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Saint Etienne 0-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 38%, Rennes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Saint Etienne) and 50% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 27% of games; Rennes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 54% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 50% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Rennes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rennes in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Saint Etienne 0-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.60 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Rennes attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Rennes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Rennes 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.46 PPG, Rennes 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.