Saint Etienne 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Reims meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reims have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Reims away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Reims — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 67% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 58% | Reims 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.14 xG and Reims 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.971 / defence 1.577 | Reims attack 0.697 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.251. Data: 36 Saint Etienne games / 36 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 27% | Reims 42%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Reims 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Reims 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 27% | Reims 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Saint Etienne 1.14 / Reims 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.971 / def 1.577 | Reims attack 0.697 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Reims (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Reims xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Reims kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Reims kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Saint Etienne 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Reims part of?
Saint Etienne vs Reims is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 31% chance of winning, Reims a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Saint Etienne and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Reims 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.97) and Reims's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.70x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
31%
3.22
27%
3.75
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.51
1.37
Reims xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.37 for Reims, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 7W 10D 19L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Reims's form line: 10W 13D 13L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.19 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.00 PPG from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
On the road, Reims have gone 5W 7D 6L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.08 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 7W 10D 19L in their last 36 games (0.86 PPG), while Reims have gone 10W 13D 13L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.00 PPG; Reims away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Reims in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 78%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 33% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Saint Etienne's games and 50% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 33% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Reims tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Reims in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Saint Etienne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Saint Etienne 1-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.14 xG and Reims 1.37 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.97 / defence 1.58 against Reims attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 27% | Reims 42%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, Reims 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.86 PPG, Reims 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.