Saint Etienne 0-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Nice travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 0W 3D 4L from 7 Ligue 1 matches — 0.43 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nice — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.83 vs 0.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Nice trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 83% versus Nice 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 67% | Nice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.80 xG and Nice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.780 / defence 1.174 | Nice attack 1.022 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.325. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Saint Etienne games / 6 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 16% | Draw 32% | Nice 53%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 6.25 | Draw 3.12 | Nice 1.89. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 100% | Nice 0%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 16% | Draw 32% | Nice 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Saint Etienne 0.80 / Nice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.780 / def 1.174 | Nice attack 1.022 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Nice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Nice xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nice kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Saint Etienne 0 - 3 Nice.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nice part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 16% chance of winning, Nice a 53% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.78x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
16%
6.43
32%
3.15
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.39
1.59
Nice xG
6.43
16%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
3%
31.50
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.59 for Nice, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 2D 4L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Nice in 17%.
Defensively: Nice in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Nice have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have Saint Etienne or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nice in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 83%, Nice 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 50% (Nice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice in 67%; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 17% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Saint Etienne's matches and 50% of Nice's.
Do Saint Etienne and Nice tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Saint Etienne 0-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.80 xG and Nice 1.59 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Nice attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 16% | Draw 32% | Nice 53%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 67%, Nice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.