Saint Etienne 2-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Saint Etienne face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Lyon at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lyon's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Saint Etienne's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lyon in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 0, Lyon 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Lyon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lyon in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 41% versus Lyon 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 44% | Lyon 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.52 xG and Lyon 2.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.974 / defence 1.498 | Lyon attack 1.297 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.442. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 2.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Saint Etienne games / 63 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 17% | Lyon 64%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 5.26 | Draw 5.88 | Lyon 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 60% | Lyon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 17% | Lyon 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 73% | xG Saint Etienne 1.52 / Lyon 2.80 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.974 / def 1.498 | Lyon attack 1.297 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Lyon (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
2.80
Lyon xG
73%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Lyon kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Lyon kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Lyon part of?
Saint Etienne vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 19% chance of winning, Lyon a 64% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Saint Etienne and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lyon?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | Lyon 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Lyon in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Lyon (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.97) and Lyon's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 2.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
19%
5.31
17%
5.97
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
2 – 2
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
4.32
2.80
Lyon xG
5.31
19%
Home win
5.97
17%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
6%
16.49
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
1%
87.50
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 2.80 for Lyon, a combined total of 4.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 24W 13D 26L from 63 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 31W 11D 21L across 63 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.35 PPG, Lyon on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 16W 6D 10L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 15W 5D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.68 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Lyon in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 13D 26L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Lyon have gone 31W 11D 21L in their last 63 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Lyon away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.69 PPG; Lyon away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lyon in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Lyon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lyon?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Lyon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 44%, Lyon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Saint Etienne) and 62% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 59% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 62% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Lyon tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lyon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Lyon 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.52 xG and Lyon 2.80 xG, a combined 4.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lyon landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.97 / defence 1.50 against Lyon attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 17% | Lyon 64%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 44%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.35 PPG, Lyon 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.