Saint Etienne 1-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Lille meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 0W 2D 0L across 2 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.50. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Saint Etienne. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lille (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.38 xG and Lille 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.933 / defence 1.084 | Lille attack 1.005 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.616. Lille bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Saint Etienne games / 2 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 30% | Lille 43%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 30% | Lille 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Saint Etienne 1.38 / Lille 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.933 / def 1.084 | Lille attack 1.005 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.616 • Poisson stance: Lille (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Lille xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Lille kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Lille.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Lille part of?
Saint Etienne vs Lille is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 27% chance of winning, Lille a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Saint Etienne and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Lille in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D. Lille (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lille's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.00x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
27%
3.68
30%
3.39
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.14
1.76
Lille xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.76 for Lille, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 2D 0L record — D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lille.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.50 scored and 3.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Lille in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Lille have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
1
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lille?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Lille have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Lille 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Saint Etienne's games and 50% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Saint Etienne's matches and 100% of Lille's.
Do Saint Etienne and Lille tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lille in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Lille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Lille finished level at 1-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.38 xG and Lille 1.76 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Lille attack 1.00 / defence 1.36, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 30% | Lille 43%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 50%, Lille 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille conceded 1 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.