Rennes 3-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Reims travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's home record at Roazhon Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Reims — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rennes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Reims in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Rennes have won 2, Reims 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Reims in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Reims 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.38 xG and Reims 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.153 / defence 1.169 | Reims attack 1.145 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.075. Data: 50 Rennes games / 50 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 34% | Draw 30% | Reims 36%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Reims 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Reims 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 34% | Draw 30% | Reims 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Rennes 1.38 / Reims 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.153 / def 1.169 | Reims attack 1.145 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Reims (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Reims xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Reims kick off?
Rennes vs Reims kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Reims?
Rennes 3 - 1 Reims.
Where is Rennes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Reims part of?
Rennes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 34% chance of winning, Reims a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rennes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
Record (4 meetings): Rennes 2W | Draws 0 | Reims 2W.
What form are Rennes and Reims in?
Rennes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Reims (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.15) and Reims's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.33
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.82
1.44
Reims xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rennes and 1.44 for Reims, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rennes's recent record stands at 23W 11D 16L from 50 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 15L across 50 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.60 PPG, Reims on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 17W 3D 5L from 25 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 11D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.24 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Reims in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 23W 11D 16L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Reims away?
Rennes's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.16 PPG; Reims away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Rennes or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Reims in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Reims have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 52%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Rennes) and 44% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Reims in 32%; Reims in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rennes's recent matches and 52% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rennes's matches and 44% of Reims's.
Do Rennes and Reims tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Reims in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Reims 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.38 xG and Reims 1.44 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against Reims attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 34% | Draw 30% | Reims 36%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Reims 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.60 PPG, Reims 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.