Rennes 2-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rennes at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Rennes welcome Le Havre to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 7W 0D 3L at Roazhon Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Rennes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Rennes in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 62% | Le Havre 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.51 xG and Le Havre 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.345 / defence 0.864 | Le Havre attack 0.957 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.290. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Rennes games / 2 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rennes 67% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 12%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 30% | Le Havre 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 67% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Rennes 2.51 / Le Havre 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.345 / def 0.864 | Le Havre attack 0.957 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Rennes (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Le Havre xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Le Havre kick off?
Rennes vs Le Havre kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Rennes 2 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Rennes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Le Havre part of?
Rennes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 67% chance of winning, Le Havre a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rennes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in?
Rennes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Le Havre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.34) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.84
12%
8.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.58
1.07
Le Havre xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
8.08
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
8%
12.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
1%
99.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Rennes and 1.07 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 22W 6D 12L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre's form line: 20W 16D 4L from 40 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.80 PPG, Le Havre on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.40 PPG from 20 outings (16W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 9W 9D 2L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.23 scored and 0.57 conceded. Rennes's scoring rate against Le Havre's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Le Havre in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 22W 6D 12L in their last 40 games (1.80 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 20W 16D 4L in their last 40 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Le Havre away?
Rennes's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.40 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Rennes or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Le Havre in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Le Havre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rennes
3
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 3, Le Havre have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Le Havre?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 40%, Le Havre 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Rennes) and 25% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Le Havre in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rennes's recent matches and 45% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Rennes's recent games and 25% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes and Le Havre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 3, as Rennes and Le Havre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.51 xG and Le Havre 1.07 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.34 / defence 0.86 against Le Havre attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 67% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 12%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 62%, Le Havre 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.80 PPG, Le Havre 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.