Reims 0-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Strasbourg at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Strasbourg make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Strasbourg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Strasbourg are 1.70 PPG clear of Reims in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 61% and Strasbourg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 54% | Strasbourg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.99 xG and Strasbourg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.812 / defence 1.078 | Strasbourg attack 0.976 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.406. Data: 61 Reims games / 61 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 25% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 48%. Fair-value odds: Reims 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Strasbourg 2.08. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 60% | Strasbourg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 25% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 0.99 / Strasbourg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.812 / def 1.078 | Strasbourg attack 0.976 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Strasbourg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Strasbourg kick off?
Reims vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Reims 0 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Reims vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Strasbourg part of?
Reims vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 25% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
Record (7 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 4 | Strasbourg 2W.
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Strasbourg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.81) and Strasbourg's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.98x) against Reims's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
25%
3.95
26%
3.82
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Reims xG
Total xG
2.47
1.48
Strasbourg xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Reims and 1.48 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 19W 16D 26L from 61 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 22L across 61 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Reims against 1.39 for Strasbourg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 11W 7D 13L from 31 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 8W 9D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Strasbourg in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 19W 16D 26L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 23W 16D 22L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Strasbourg away?
Reims's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.29 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
4
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Strasbourg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 55%, Strasbourg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Reims) and 52% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Reims's games and 61% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Reims's recent games and 52% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Reims 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.99 xG and Strasbourg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Strasbourg attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 25% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 48%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 54%, Strasbourg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.20 PPG, Strasbourg 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.