Reims 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 45%, yet in-form Stade Brestois 29 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Stade Brestois 29's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Reims's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 0, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Stade Brestois 29 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 48% | Stade Brestois 29 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.48 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.014 / defence 0.887 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.915 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.280. Data: 42 Reims games / 42 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 25%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Stade Brestois 29 4.00. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stade Brestois 29 (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Stade Brestois 29 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Reims 1.48 / Stade Brestois 29 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.014 / def 0.887 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.915 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Stade Brestois 29 xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reims 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 45% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reims and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (4 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 4 | Stade Brestois 29 0W.
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.01x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.35
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Reims xG
Total xG
2.52
1.04
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Reims and 1.04 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Reims have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 16D 12L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29's form line: 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.38 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.17 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 14W 16D 12L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Reims's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.65 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Reims or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
6
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Stade Brestois 29 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 50% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Reims's games and 60% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.48 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 45% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 25%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 48%, Stade Brestois 29 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.38 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.